luciusfunk Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 On 7/15/2024 at 11:49 AM, dontdamnmeuyi2015 said: Another judge has dismissed the case against Trump for stealing classified documents from the White House. Unreal. Next up I bet he gets away with denying the 2020 election and inciting the riot of January 6. America meet your next President and we will have 4 years of doom and disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downzy Posted July 18 Author Share Posted July 18 I give Biden by the end of next week to drop out. Between his recent covid diagnosis and the three heavy-weights of the Democratic party (Jeffries, Schumer, Pelosi) telling him the Democrats will get destroyed in November if he stays in it, Biden's time as the top of the ticket has to be short. https://www.thedailybeast.com/major-dem-donor-draws-up-i-quit-speech-for-biden-as-cash-dries-up?ref=home?ref=home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmo Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 (edited) At this point, I'm betting the only possible way to win against Trump would be to get a Michelle Obama/Kamala Harris ticket with A LOT of promotion. Or if somehow Biden dies. That would certainly change the general status of this election. But right now, as is, Trump is winning by a landslide. Nothing quite wins votes like an assassination attempt, unfortunately. I've seen this before and it works a lot in favour of the victim. Edited July 18 by Cosmo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweersa Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 I believe Trump had this election before the attempt on his life. Now, it's almost a certainty he will win. I'm not sure who the democrats could pick that will have better ratings than Biden, time is running out, a decision will need to be made soon. I predict they will keep him in the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmo Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 28 minutes ago, Sweersa said: I believe Trump had this election before the attempt on his life. Now, it's almost a certainty he will win. I'm not sure who the democrats could pick that will have better ratings than Biden, time is running out, a decision will need to be made soon. I predict they will keep him in the race. It seems he's dropping out. The republican party even sent out a note about the vice-presidential debate saying they will wait for Kamala to chose a running mate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweersa Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 36 minutes ago, Cosmo said: It seems he's dropping out. The republican party even sent out a note about the vice-presidential debate saying they will wait for Kamala to chose a running mate. Wow, news to me! I suppose I'm a little surprised. I hope he (and anyone else afflicted with covid) gets well soon. I have heard Kamala has not great poll results, but I really don't know much about her. What a time to be alive! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downzy Posted July 18 Author Share Posted July 18 As disadvantaged as Biden is, current polling doesn't show Trump running away with it. They are still statistically tied at the national level and all but Arizona and Georgia shows very close races in the battleground states. This says to me that Trump has a hard ceiling of support, regardless of Biden's terrible debate performance and Trump's assassination attempt. I don't think the shooting that took place last week converts Biden voters into Trump supporters. There's little evidence of that. Where it can affect the election is getting Trump agnostic citizens to actually vote for Trump. But there's still a lot of ways to go before we get to the election. Remember Hillary was up huge in the polls following the Access Hollywood leak that came out early October of 2016. Three weeks later James Comey announces the FBI is resuming its investigation into Clinton because of Weiner's laptop and it completely reset the race. We don't know yet how the race will shake up. Trump has all the momentum right now but a lot can change. Dukakis was up by 10-15 points over George H.W. Bush at the beginning of July in the 1988 race and Bush ended up winning handily. I do think if the Democrats have any chance at all they have to replace Biden. He not only hurts Democrats chance of retaining the White House but affecting their ability to retake the House and not lose too many seats in the Senate. I think that's why so many Democrats are making it known they want them gone; they see their internal poll numbers and it's pretty ugly. I do think Harris has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden does. And right now, according to polling, Biden has a 40-50 percent chance of winning. Remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were 1 in 3. The question really becomes about Harris's ability to turnout Democrats and the majority of Americans who really don't like Trump (and, yes, they are a majority). Interesting and unprecedented times we live in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rindmelon Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 9 minutes ago, downzy said: I don't think the shooting that took place last week converts Biden voters into Trump supporters. There's little evidence of that. I don't see that either, but a percentage if disenfranchised can just stay at home and not vote at all. That would be still damaging to the Dems regardless of who they run, & there are people that feel that way for sure based of the Israel situation alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontdamnmeuyi2015 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 On 7/16/2024 at 1:24 PM, Rindmelon said: Kyle Kulinski's done a pretty good break down of more video that has appeared. Very clear from this that the people there interviewed by BBC and others were telling the truth when they said they were yelling there was a guy on the roof before shots rang out. I saw video os people who saw the guy on the roof and filmed it with their phones. I heard, not sure, that whoever was in charge told the security to stand down. I don't agree with violence, but this should show Trump not everyone loves him. I doubt he'll change any. He's still lying so nothing has changed for him at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmo Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 13 minutes ago, dontdamnmeuyi2015 said: I saw video os people who saw the guy on the roof and filmed it with their phones. I heard, not sure, that whoever was in charge told the security to stand down. I don't agree with violence, but this should show Trump not everyone loves him. I doubt he'll change any. He's still lying so nothing has changed for him at all. The thing that impresses me the most is that this, combined with the hundreds of shootings every year in the US, would make a candidate decide to tackle the lack of gun regulations and easy access to weapons in their country. But not in the US, because of $$$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknroll41 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 (edited) MSNBC say that Biden will drop out any day now. Apparently top democrats are telling them that it’s happening. Its joever. Edited July 18 by rocknroll41 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downzy Posted July 18 Author Share Posted July 18 1 hour ago, Rindmelon said: I don't see that either, but a percentage if disenfranchised can just stay at home and not vote at all. That would be still damaging to the Dems regardless of who they run, & there are people that feel that way for sure based of the Israel situation alone. Yes, if Biden stays on the ballot it could very well make a lot of people who might have bothered to vote for a Democrat stay home. This is why Congressional and Senate candidates are making it clear they want him replaced because it hurts their re-election chances. The Israel situation won't factor outside of Michigan. It's not listed as in the top 5 or 10 issues for Republican or Democratic voters. Plus a lot can change. And if Harris ends up replacing Biden, it offers an opportunity to reset that narrative, since a vote for Trump would be far worse for Palestinians (something he likes to use as an insult). One thing that is interesting is whether Trump will get out the vote as he thinks he will. Democrats have become better at relying on frequent voters, whereas Trump is generally good at getting out casual voters (or people who don't often vote). The reason why I wonder if Trump does as well as he thinks he will is because Trump has directed the RNC to spend little to no money on a ground game (or get out the vote machinery). He's instead directing his campaign chairs to spend the money that would have traditionally gone to a ground game to something called "election integrity." This is basically paying people to physically watch every single (or as many as they can) polling location, dropbox, or what have you and document any "irregularities." Many will be lawyers or people with election experience. Trump is so convinced that he alone will motivate people to vote for him that they're not investing in knocking on door campaigns, registering voters, and other traditional means to get serious or casual voters to the polls on election day. It's quite the gamble. If it fails the polls are likely over-representing Trump's vote share; if he succeeds he'll win on a bigger scale than what the polls are now telling us. One thing is for certain though, Trump's entire campaign has been setup to take on Joe Biden. Strength vs. Weakness. Safety versus liberalism. It will be interesting to see what happens to Trump's campaign should Harris take over. 26 minutes ago, Cosmo said: The thing that impresses me the most is that this, combined with the hundreds of shootings every year in the US, would make a candidate decide to tackle the lack of gun regulations and easy access to weapons in their country. But not in the US, because of $$$ Money explains only a part of it. Guns are a cultural phenomenon that is unparalleled in other developed nations. Many voters in the US are single-issue (i.e. guns) voters. Their intensity over the issue counteracts against the views of the majority, who want tighter gun restrictions but vote for more than this one issue. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamillos Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Hi guys. 2 cents from a total outsider here. A few days back I thought, they'll withdraw him, and they'll blame it on physical problems, on health. The next day, bam, he says in an interview the only reason for which he'd resign would be his health. The day after, bam, the headlines say Biden has covid. So that's basically how it's gonna go down. Mark my words. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknroll41 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 More sources are starting to say that Biden will drop out this weekend, and Harris will take over (he will still serve out the rest of his current term tho). it’s joever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon Comstock Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 If they go with Kamala, they're still doomed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downzy Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 3 hours ago, Gordon Comstock said: If they go with Kamala, they're still doomed. Why? She’s polling better than Biden and despite the shit 20 days Biden has had he’s still a statistical coin flip to win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downzy Posted July 19 Author Share Posted July 19 Having Hulk Hogan, Kid Rock, and Dana White open for the Republican Presidential nominee is certainly a choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamillos Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 I’ve heard people don’t like Kamala Harris too much. Why is that? I don’t watch US politics closely, but this would sound like a no-brainer. She’s a woman, she’s black, and she’s his deputy (this is not cynicism, btw; that’s how it works). If she ever had a chance to become president, it would be now. We’ve had a black guy, but not a woman yet – she’s their ace, since Michelle is probably not doing it (plus she’s no politician... although neither had been Trump before his tenure). I’m not taking any sides here, by the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmo Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 An all-woman ballot with Kamala and Michelle would be a strong and symbolic ballot for the democrats, which could build up a great narrative for them. Two women of colour to win against a billionaire white man who's been convicted of sexual assault not too long ago. That's strong symbolism, great to rile up women and young people to vote, which are the main demographics for democrats. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknroll41 Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 1 hour ago, Cosmo said: An all-woman ballot with Kamala and Michelle would be a strong and symbolic ballot for the democrats, which could build up a great narrative for them. Two women of colour to win against a billionaire white man who's been convicted of sexual assault not too long ago. That's strong symbolism, great to rile up women and young people to vote, which are the main demographics for democrats. According to reports, Michelle is not interested in politics anymore at all, and the three people Kamala is choosing between to be her running mate are all white guys. 7 hours ago, jamillos said: I’ve heard people don’t like Kamala Harris too much. Why is that? I don’t watch US politics closely, but this would sound like a no-brainer. She’s a woman, she’s black, and she’s his deputy (this is not cynicism, btw; that’s how it works). If she ever had a chance to become president, it would be now. We’ve had a black guy, but not a woman yet – she’s their ace, since Michelle is probably not doing it (plus she’s no politician... although neither had been Trump before his tenure). I’m not taking any sides here, by the way. Just go watch some interviews of hers and listen to her talk for a bit. Woman sounds unhinged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamillos Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 38 minutes ago, rocknroll41 said: According to reports, Michelle is not interested in politics anymore at all, and the three people Kamala is choosing between to be her running mate are all white guys. Just go watch some interviews of hers and listen to her talk for a bit. Woman sounds unhinged. Ok I will. I don't think I even know her voice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknroll41 Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 Looks like Biden has restarted his internet ads asking for donations, but I assume all that money can just easily be transferred to Harris if (when) he decides to drop out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontdamnmeuyi2015 Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 15 hours ago, downzy said: Having Hulk Hogan, Kid Rock, and Dana White open for the Republican Presidential nominee is certainly a choice. And they all lied just like Trump. I saw some of Trump's speech on The Daily Show and he lied as usual. And that Vance guy talked about his grandmother having guns in every room of her house in hand's reach. Not locked up, because she was protecting herself and her family. WTF? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillConnor_1982 Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 5 hours ago, dontdamnmeuyi2015 said: And they all lied just like Trump. I saw some of Trump's speech on The Daily Show and he lied as usual. And that Vance guy talked about his grandmother having guns in every room of her house in hand's reach. Not locked up, because she was protecting herself and her family. WTF? Trump fudges numbers. 57% is actually 21%, etc. Biden just straight out LIES. He is a sleaze ball just like Gavin Newsom. I'd rather have an empty bottle of Pepsi as the President than Gavin Newsom. He is the worst of the worst. I know he is licking his lips just waiting to kiss whoever's ass to get a VP nomination under Harris. He is the main reason I left the Democratic Party. (And it has nothing to do with the Covid restrictions). Just look into the shady stuff with PG&E and the deadliest wildfire in CA history. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-W.A.R- Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 Some good articles Republicans’ Message of Unity Didn’t Last Long So Much for a Newly Reborn Republican Party "This, at the end of the day, is what “realignment” means. Trump’s GOP will continue to cater to business interests at home and project imperial military power abroad. Comparatively honest ghouls like Nikki Haley and Steve Scalise will sell this package with good old-fashioned Reaganite branding, excitedly reminding their listeners that Trump is the president who tore up the Iran deal and passed a big tax cut for the rich. Tucker Carlson and J. D. Vance will use different words — ones designed to excite people who prefer to believe that reelecting a billionaire union-buster to the presidency will somehow stick it to big business." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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